Do Commodities Belong In Your Portfolio?

commodity belongCommodities Belong

Although it may sound frightening and risky to many investors, if handled correctly, commodities belong could be the missing piece of an investor’s portfolio. What exactly are commodities?

Commodities are any mass goods traded on an exchange or in a cash market including: cocoa, coffee, eggs, lumber, orange juice, soybeans and sugar just to name a few. Industrial metals are also included with copper, aluminum, zinc, nickel, silver, and lead ranking among the most popular industrial metals holdings.

Finally, the most widely followed commodities include oil, natural gas and gold.

The diversification benefits equal or surpass those of other asset classes like fixed income and real estate.

Commodities Belong and correlation

The primary reason for this is their correlation, or lack thereof, to the stock market as represented by the S&P 500 (Correlation describes how similar the price movement is between two investments).

Commodities have historically exhibited absolutely no correlation to the stock market or any of the bond market indices. In fact, they have a negative correlation.

This non-similar pattern of performance allows an investor to minimize volatility and protect capital in down markets. Overall, these factors help to decrease overall risk in a portfolio of investments.

In short, commodities have historically been a good compliment to a traditional stock, bond and real estate portfolio.

Utilized Commodities Belong

When commodities are utilized as a stand-alone investment, commodities are relatively volatile, exhibiting wild price swings.

At times, they are also illiquid, prohibiting the investor from exiting a position that is dropping rapidly. Another factor to be aware of when investing in commodities is the unusual income taxation.

Most notably, investors are taxed each year on their share of the profits, if there are profits, regardless of whether the investment has been sold.

This is a significant disadvantage compared to investments in stocks, because one does not pay income taxes until the stock is actually sold.

Finally, fees to implement a commodities strategy are significantly higher than for those of traditional mutual funds, for example. For these reasons, it is best to only consider 5-20% of one’s portfolio for this strategy.

At a time when stocks and bonds are predicted by most academics and investment gurus such as Warren Buffet, Bill Gross of PIMCO, and Jeremy Grantham of Grantham,

Mayer, and Van Otterloo, to produce 5.0% returns or less over the next decade due to historically high market valuations.

On a historical basis, commodities are inexpensively priced and substantial upside potential is possible. U.S. inflation is historically low right now but with the effects of massive fiscal, monetary policy and already robust consumer spending, raw goods prices will inevitably increase.

When they do, commodity indices will follow. As inflation gradually rises in 2006 and beyond, industrial metals prices will rise as investors begin to direct large amounts of money into these hard asset commodities.

commodities belong

Correlation Between Commodities and Inflation

The high correlation between commodities and inflation provide an important hedge against considerable losses in traditional financial instruments such as stocks and bonds.

In his recent book “Hot Commodities”, author and renowned investor Jim Rogers summed it up this way:

The 1980’s and 1990’s saw a bear market in commodities. Prices had fallen to levels (adjusted for inflation) not seen since the Great Depression.

For 130 years, stocks and commodities have alternated leadership in regular cycles averaging 18 years.

The long bear market in commodities has created a sharp reduction in capacity – and thus large supply-and-demand imbalances.

As economies in Asia continue to grow, there will be a strong worldwide demand for all commodities.

Historically, the prices of commodities show a negative correlation to the prices moves of stocks, bonds and other financial instruments.

Commodity prices can rise even when the economy is stuck in reverse and their returns outpace inflation.

The U.S. Federal Reserve and other banks in the world have been pursuing a policy of debasing their paper currencies.

The U.S. Federal Reserve’s policy of monetary stimulus and rapid credit expansion will continue to push up the prices of hard assets such as precious metals and other commodities.

History shows that war and political chaos only push commodities prices higher.

Commodities also provide a tactical play on the current weakness in the U.S. Dollar. As other currencies such as the Euro and Yen appreciate versus the dollar, foreign buyers can buy less goods with the same amount of currency.

This artificially increases demand, and subsequently drives up the prices of commodities.

Currently, effects of this phenomenon can be seen best in the gold and silver markets as prices have risen dramatically over the past year.

Commodities provide a play on globalization by their ability to aid in the improvement of the global economy. This is due to the fact that prices for industrial materials will increase as demand for industrial goods increase.

As countries such as China and other emerging market economies develop, they will require more raw materials.

This is especially true for industrial metals. China continues to develop at a rapid pace and consequently, their demand for raw materials continues to rise.

In fact, China’s iron ore demand has increased from 5% of the world’s supply to almost 50% over the past twelve years.

Commodities have proven to be excellent investments over the last few years. There are a number of types of investment vehicles to take advantage of this great diversification play.

Many of our client portfolios have benefited from this recent performance. With only small allocations to hard assets, most client portfolios have delivered returns that were twice the performance of traditional stock and bond portfolios.

Many experts agree that U.S. stocks and bonds will, in all likelihood, generate significantly lower returns over the next decade.

Commodities on the other hand may have the potential for the highest returns since the 1970s due to a worldwide economic expansion especially from emerging market countries.

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Before Trading Crude Oil

trading crude oil4 Catalysts to Consider When Trading Crude Oil

Financial headlines just can’t get enough of trading crude oil as the commodity continues tossing and turning because of many market elements.

Here are the reviews and events you ought to hold near tabs on if you’re buying and selling Black Crack or the positively correlated Canadian dollar.

EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report

The Energy Information Administration releases its U.S. Crude oil stockpiles figure, that contained within the Weekly Petroleum Status Report. 

This serves as a gauge of deliver and demand for the commodity.

If you had been paying interest on your Economics one hundred and one class in place of playing together with your fidget spinner, you’d likely take into account a little something known as the Law of Supply and Demand.

Positioned, this state that a growth in deliver has a tendency to put a downward strain on expenses even as a growth in demand lifts charges. 

Conversely, a decrease in deliver raise rate degrees even as a decrease in a call for drags down.

Number-crunchers even have a consensus discern available before the real launch to give marketplace junkies an idea of the way the real analyzing might flip out.

This benchmark can also influence price motion in that a bigger than predicted boom or a decrease than expected attract stockpiles ought to spur oversupply worries while a lower than expected increase or a bigger than predicted reduction ought to sign healthful demand.

Trading Crude Oil 2

API Weekly Statistical Bulletin About Trading Crude Oil

If you need to get a piece of a side beforehand of the professional EIA report, you ought to maintain tabs on the Weekly Statistical Bulletin from the American Petroleum Institute (API) released lots in advance inside the week.

In particular, the API collects information on production, imports, and inventories of the four most important petroleum products (motor fuel, kerosene jet gas, distillate gasoline oil, and residual gas oil) that contains over 80% of total refinery manufacturing.

This file additionally comprises beneficial figures on production, imports, and inventories, besides imports and inventories of unfinished oils, crude oil imports and production, and refinery input and capacity data in case you need to a head in-intensity on energy marketplace traits.

Just just like the EIA, the API prints these figures on a weekly foundation, normally on a Tuesday, providing a more or much less reliable preview of the reliable figures.

Keep in mind that because it launched some days beforehand, the API figure also can act as a benchmark for the EIA file. 

Although Thomson Reuters subscribers get first dibs on the figures, 1/3-birthday party news resources share the facts almost immediately.

Baker Hughes Influence in Trading Crude Oil

Being one of the international’s biggest oil subject services companies, Baker Hughes can keep music of the wide variety of rigs operating in the U.S. And Canada.

We consider the exchange within the number of oil rigs a leading indicator of supply as producers regularly scale up drilling operations to maintain up with growing demand or to take advantage of increasing fees.

However, growing oil rig counts also has a tendency to hold a lid on crude oil price, specially if the boom is massive enough to warrant oversupply worries. 

The number typically launched on the give up of the week and may determine on the Baker Hughes Rig Count app.

OPEC conferences & updates

Last however most sincerely not least are updates from the crude oil mafia itself. 

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) additionally affords a regular replace of production, inventories, and exports from their aspect of the arena, and it print those figures on a monthly foundation.

Note that the OPEC has imposed a production cap on most of its member international locations, except for Libya and Nigeria, and has even prolonged this output deal for a few more months on the way to maintain crude oil charges afloat.

While this appears like a very good plan in theory, compliance amongst member international locations has been an issue nowadays. 

Apart from that, the rift with Qatar and surging production amongst exempted nations has rendered the output deal much less effective. 

Keep an eye fixed out for changes in manufacturing degrees from one month to any other, export tiers, and member compliance.

As with maximum pinnacle-tier financial reviews, marketplace expectancies and forecasts from analysts additionally influence charge movement before the real launch. 

For example, strength representative firms like Petro-Logistics share their estimates for the OPEC figures based on tanker shipments and commentary from enterprise experts push crude oil expenses round as properly.

Any huge selections or even tips of motion from the OPEC itself also have a robust say on charge stages. 

That’s why interviews from strength ministers and even non-reliable meetings get several market interest.

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Interest Rate Futures Explained

interest rate futuresInterest Rate Futures

Interest rate futures are futures contracts based on prices, which can be used to both hedge or speculate on destiny interest rates. Some fee rate futures require the transport of precise styles of bonds, usually authorities bonds, with a minimal term till maturity at the shipping date.

Other interest fee futures are cash settled: the quick role pays, and the lengthy position gets, the interest earned on a notional amount, that is the face value of the contract on the delivery date.

Like bonds, the rates of interest rate futures contracts varies inversely with marketplace interest fees, so better interest quotes will decrease the expenses of interest rate futures, and vice versa.

Government Securities and Interest Rate Futures

Most interest rate futures primarily based on authorities securities and bank deposits, so there is truly no default risk.

Thus, their expenses only stimulated through interest rates. It calculates interest the usage of the banker’s 12 months of 360 days.

The rate of the futures settlement frequently decided through the spot rate of the underlying asset, changed by using the price of delivery, which inside the case of interest rate futures, is the opportunity cost of maintaining the safety as opposed to cash until the transport date minus the interest earned from maintaining the security.

Interest fee futures, along with interest-rate alternatives, interest charge swaps, and ahead rate agreements offer a method for handling interest-rate risk on loans, both rate hazard and reinvestment chance.

The rates of debt securities decline however reinvestment hazard decreases whilst interest rates upward push, and vice versa.

For banks, mainly, loans are normally long term, whilst deposits are quick-term, so interest fee futures are an important device for asset-legal responsibility management.

interest rate futures 2

Interest Rate Futures Variety

There is a huge interest-rate contracts, which characterised as either brief-time period or long-term.

A brief-time period of interest futures has an underlying safety that matures in much less than 1 year; in any other case, it’s far a protracted-term futures contract.

The most popular contract is the Treasury bond futures, wherein the underlying assets are United States Treasury bonds with at the least 15 years to maturity at the shipping date.

Treasury Bond Futures

It trades Treasury bond futures at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT), which calls for the shipping of Treasury bonds with over 15 years remaining to adulthood and that is not callable inside the ones 15 years.

The brief role has a choice of any Treasury bond futures that satisfies the change’s necessities for the delivered asset.

We quote Treasury bond future costs as Treasury bond costs. Each agreement has a face price of $one hundred,000, so a $1 exchange in the quoted futures charge is same to a $1000 alternate inside the value of the futures contract.

Delivery is allowable throughout the transport month.

Because bonds issued and retired always, futures contracts do no longer stipulate a particular bond difficulty for shipping.

To allow the greatest flexibility, the fast birthday party can commonly pick from extensive bonds that range in coupon and adulthood, so long as the phrases of the agreement are happy.

The CBOT contracts primarily based on a Treasury bond paying a 6% coupon.

Therefore, the price of the contracts need to adjust through a conversion issue that displays the interest price of long-time period Treasury bonds at the time of the agreement.

The rate got through the short role and the fee paid through the long role relies upon at the conversion element.

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Regards Commodity Futures Trading Commission

commodity futures trading commissionWhat Is the Commodity Futures Trading Commission?

The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) is an impartial U.S. Federal enterprise installed with the aid of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission Act of 1974. 
 
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates the commodity futures and alternatives markets.
 
Its desires comprise the advertising of competitive and green futures markets and the safety of buyers towards manipulation, abusive alternate practices, and fraud.
 
commodity futures trading commission 2

Understanding the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

The CFTC has 5 committees, each headed via a commissioner who appointed through the president and approved by the Senate. 
 
These five committees consciousness on agriculture, international markets, energy and environmental markets, ERA, and cooperation among the CFTC and SEC.
 
It populates the committees with the aid of people who represent the pursuits of specific industries, traders, futures exchanges, commodities exchanges, purchasers and the surroundings.
 
The Commodity Exchange Act (CEA) regulates the trading of commodity futures inside the United States. Passed in 1936 and amended several times given that, the CEA establishes the statutory framework under which the CFTC operates. 
 
Under this Act, the CFTC has authority to establish regulations which published in Title 17, Chapter I, of the Code of Federal Regulations (CFR).

New Challenges for the Commodity Futures Trading Commission

The CFTC is shifting far from its ancient function as the regulator of traditional commodity merchandise-associated futures and options contracts to face new challenges inside the digital age of the twenty-first century.
 
A new challenge going through the CFTC is for a new monetary era (FinTech) products and crypto-currencies like Bitcoin, which had a Bitcoin futures settlement released in late 2017 that trades with the CME Group. 
 
The CFTC says that FinTech is using innovation in financial markets across the globe.  
 
 
New technology is wide ranging in scope, from cloud computing and algorithmic trading to allotted ledgers to synthetic intelligence and machine learning to network cartography and many others.
 
These technologies have the potential for enormous or maybe transformational effect on CFTC-regulated markets and the agency itself. The CFTC plans to play an energetic role within the oversight of this rising innovation.
 
The CFTC performs a crucial role in regulating financial markets. Without such regulation and regulators, it could subject marketplace contributors to fraud through unscrupulous individuals and, in a flip, lose religion in our capital markets.
 
This should make capital markets ineffective at efficiently allocating economic assets to the most deserving way of production and efficient monetary sports to the detriment of buyers, clients and society. 
 
Time will show if the employer is up to the brand new challenges it faces.

What Is the Securities and Futures Commission?

The Securities and Futures Commission (SFC) is a non-governmental statutory frame accountable for regulating Hong Kong’s securities and futures markets. 
 
The SFC changed into mounted by using the Securities and Futures Commission Ordinance (SFCO).
 
The commission is independent and not below the purview of the Government of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region. It funded by licensing costs and transaction levies.
 
The SFC administers the legal guidelines governing Hong Kong’s securities and futures markets and enables the development of those markets.
 
 
The SFC’s statutory objectives are to hold and promote fairness, performance, competitiveness, and transparency inside the securities and futures markets. 
 
Sell public expertise of making an investment and company finance policy; shield traders with the aid of implementing rules; lessen crime and misconduct and decrease the dangers to Hong Kong’s monetary balance.
 

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Diversifying Investments With Commodity Trading

commodity tradingAnother Way Investing-Commodity Trading

Like Forex and stocks, commodity trading is developing famous a few of the Indian traders, because the marketplace has unfolded kingdom-extensive structures for retail traders and investors to take part in commodities. multi-commodity exchanges just like the National Commodity and Derivative Exchange, the Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd and the National Multi Commodity Exchange of India Ltd hooked up inside the USA.

To aid retail traders, who need to diversify their portfolios beyond shares, bonds, actual property, and start commodity trading.

The buying and selling and agreement machine in these exchanges is electronic, which makes it handy to deal in commodity futures like gold, silver, base metals, crude oil, natural fuel, agricultural commodities amongst others, without the actual need of owning them as physical stocks.

Also, stay percentage prices, lets in the trader to comply with the market movements speed and make smarter choices.

commodity trading 2

Knows the fundamentals In Commodity Trading

In commodity trading, the buyers can fund their account based on their comfort stage and hazard tolerance stage.

However, it’s far crucial to familiarize the norms of putting orders and buying and selling strategies to deal wisely and prevent from over-buying and selling.

When trading in commodities, the buyers need to do their homework nicely, understand the fundamentals of demand and supply, and make choices based on garage and consumption of products?

It offers a super portfolio diversification option to the investors because the commodities futures are less unstable compared to fairness and bonds.

Retail buyers can get worried in commodity buying and selling seeking the assist of a dealer and trading happens online thru the internet similar to the equities.

Forward Markets Commission regulates the exchanges, however right here agents do no longer ought to sign in themselves with the regulator.

Similar to the stocks trading, right here too, the investor would require a bank account, a commodity account and account with the depository to start. We need an agreement with the dealer.

The investor additionally has to supply the necessities required beneath Know Your Client layout and with the aid of the exchanges and dealer.

With a minimum quantity of Rs 5,000, a retail investor can start their journey into the commodity buying and selling on account that handiest a marginal quantity (five-10 percent) of the real cost of the commodity agreement paid upfront exchanges via the agents.

Every dealer and commodity can also have an extraordinary quantity and amount necessities. For instance, with gold, one trading unit (10gms) is between Rs 30,040 and at 10 percent Rs 3,004 is payable in advance.

The trading masses and rates of agricultural commodities also vary from alternate to trade (in kg, quintals or tonnes). however, the bottom fund starts at approximately Rs five,000.

Cash vs delivery mechanisms

While each exchange permits cash and transport mechanisms in trading, whilst your preference is cash settled, suggest this early on while setting the order that you may know not deliver the item. 

And when taking or making a shipping is your preferred option, maintain all warehouse receipts on hand for an overview.

You have got the freedom to exchange your choice several instances among cash settlement and shipping mode until the expiry of the contract.

Know the prices In Commodity Trading

A broking may rate from 0.10-0.25 percent of the contract value but can’t exceed the most restriction laid with the aid of the exchange.

Transaction expenses are also relevant from Rs 6 and Rs 10 consistent with lakh/in step with a settlement.

While studies and amassing statistics from various channels like financial newspapers and mag is helpful and following the commodity quotes on-line and at live proportion costs portals is the manner key to being knowledgeable and a success commodity buying and selling.

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